THE FUTURE OF "O.R.O.P." पापी पेट के लिए ही सब करना पड़ता है सरजी -BY Sivasankar Vidyasagar

A good technical analysis of the situation. ...a personal conclusion. ..needs validation from those who know the inside truth. ..the andar ki baat. ..known to very very few. ...who are very closely associated. ..with those in power. 

"Sivasankar Vidyasagar" csvidyasagar - here are my own analysis of political situation in our country.

The India Today in Sep 1981 wrote a main article that Ms Indira Gandhi then hon'ble PM overruled objections of Mr Pranab Mukerjee (Yes you guessed it correctly, the only intelligent guy who knew Congress will be  wiped out in 2014 elections and reported to have arm twisted Ms Sonia Gandhi to nominate him to post of President so that for five years he is not dragged to courts by CBI etc)...Was then Min of State for Finance and his battalion of Babus in Min of Fin not to grant Entilted Rations in 1983.

It is rumoured ( published in The India Today of 1982 ) that Gen KV Krishna Rao sought and got an appointment with Ms Indira Gandhi and submitted her, his resignation letter and reported to have told her  "I have lost moral courage to command Army". 

She called Mr Pranab and ordered him  "I want implementation letter tomorrow at 1000 hrs on my table.!!!" Mr Pranab Mukherjee rattled at this development cajoled COAS to accept ration money which the latter flatly refused. 

Gen KV Krishna Rao never bargained for post retirement benefits but was appointed Governor of Nagaland and then J & K for his Military Qualities and forthrightness. I tend to believe this story of The India Today.

This incident if it is true ( I do not have reasons not disbelieve) makes me to draw following conclusions :-

(a) Mr Narendra Modi even today is not as strong as Ms Indira Gandhi in 1982. He has to fight his battles within BJP. So he can not throw out all those who served Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee in 1999 - 2004 in one go. I am sure you know Mr Modi is no where in the same league as Mr Arun Jaitley (Law Minister at that time), Ms Sushma Swaraj (Cabinet Minister) Politically and even in BJP. He was a rank outsider. So how does he deal with such senior lot ?

He has to pretend to listen to Mr Arun Jaitley who is bent on not granting OROP.

He is not comfortable with Mr Jaitley and wants him to make some goof up and then drop him from his council of ministers.

(b) Mr Arun Jaitley, Ms Sushma Swaraj are waiting to strike at Mr Modi at opportune time. So Modi cannot afford to annoy them anymore. So he needs to gain some time to gain an upper hand over them. For this he needs time till he gains adequate courage to tell them to grant OROP.

So my guess is OROP will not be granted for next two to three years. 

The first step is to anoint Mr Amit Shah as BJP President so that he can take full control over Govt and Party. I am sure such actions need approval of old guard of BJP presently in his cabinet and so Mr Modi has to oblige them.

It makes one thing clear :

If Mr Modi has to wage a battle with Mr LK Advani and others, he needs support of Mr Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj for some time till he becomes all powerful as he was in Gujarat in 2013. Pl see Mr Narendra Modi in 2002 when he was nominated to post of CM and the same Mr Modi in Sep 2013 as CM of Gujarat. His was last word in Gujarat and it took him good about 5 to 6 years to reach that autocratic position.

(c) What benefit will Mr Modi get by granting OROP now though he has promised OROP several times? 

Wada todne ke liye diya jataya hai Sir. Don't you know famous words of Mr Arun Jaitley  

"We make lots of promises before elections but all can not be fulfilled"..!!

(d) Mr Arun Jaitley also can not take his sword out and jab at Mr Modi as Jaitley is not capable of winning even a corporator seat in MCH and forget about winning Lok Sabha election. So it is blow hot and blow cold.

 He can bark at Mr Modi but can not bite. 

(e) What is the reaction of PMFs and CAPFs if OROP is granted is the question for which Mr Modi has no answer.

 IB which is again a IPS dominated organisation will give wrong intelligence reports that there will be mutiny in PMFs and CAPFs if OROP is granted only to faujis. So either grant OROP to all or do not grant OROP to faujis at all is their likely recommenda-tion to Mr Modi.

No PM can overlook advice of Director IB. You may call OROP as Military Pension but these police organisations who got more allowances than faujis would not keep quiet. How to quieten them? Their strength is also as much as faujis. So will they not lose their votes ?

(f) All the old guard in BJP want Mr Modi to fail miserably so that they can take revenge for being sidelined. So Mr Modi has to walk a tight rope.

(g) There are Congis (who just defected to BJP in  end of 2013 and two to three of them are ministers with blessings of Ms Sonia Gandhi to sabotage BJP from within) are planted in BJP by Congress High Command. They will exploit all possible rumblings in BJP like Shakuni of Maha Bharat did to Kauravas and bring downfall of Mr Modi's Govt. They pretend to be servile to Mr Modi and will stab him in the back and return to Congress after their triumphant victory.

(h) Old guard of BJP want their party to lose in Bihar and lose miserably like in Delhi. Then you see approval ratings of Mr Modi within BJP will come down and slowly the old guard led by Mr LK Advani ably supported by Mr Arun Shourie, Murali Manohar Joshi, Maj Gen BC Khanduri, Arun Jaitely, Susham Swaraj will bray for blood of Mr Modi for bringing BJP to such a pass.

(k) If BJP does not get elbow room in West Bengal then Mr Modi can pack up his bags and go back to Gandhi Nagar.

Let us analyse the Present COAS. He is not a Gen KV Krishna Rao even by a light year. He is implicated in dacoity case in Jorhat, Assam when he was GOC 3 Corps and is one of the accused in the hon'ble High court of Guwahati for the crime committed by his Int & Svl gp of 3 Corps which was directlyunder him and who carried out dacoity in Jorhat.

Can he afford to annoy even Desk Officer of MoD  

 IB would be definitely maintaining a file on him. So he is told to go to Jhajjar and make a grand announcement just before Haryana elections that OROP letter will be issued before 30 Mar 2015. So he is acting as messenger of BJP to get victories in state elections for BJP.

Papi pet ke liye he sab karna padta hai sirjee.

COAS is ordered to cajole ESM organisations not to stage any protest rallies by arranging meetings with RM, FM and even PM. 

So he is just a HIS MASTER'S VOICE.

Can you ever dream that he can thump his 56 inch chest and say " Give OROP or I am going to resign".

Just imagine what would you do if you are in place of Gen Dalbir Singh Suhag.He is waiting for his tenure to finish and want to enjoy enhanced OROP thanks to 7th CPC. He in all likelyhood will beg to be appointed as Governor of tiny Puducheery so that he is not called by High Court of Guwahati post his retirement.

I am told IESM has repeatedly asked for an audience with PM but PMO does not want to grant it in the near future.
Pl draw your own conclusions. I could be totally naive and wrong in my conclusions.

I wish I am wrong

(Source- Vasundhra blog)